CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2014-03-29T18:39:00-CME-001)

(Arrival Prediction by NOAA/SWPC submitted to this system by M. Leila Mays)
(Submitted CME shock arrival time taken from Forecast Discussion below and from the simulation posted here: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wsa-enlil/)
(Submitted Kp estimate is from the Forecast Discussion and 3-Day Forecast below)
--
Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2014 Mar 30 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached high levels due to an impulsive X1/2b flare at
29/1748 UTC from Region 2017 (N10W42, Dac/beta-gamma-delta). In
addition, a Type-II radio sweep with an estimated speed of 4,508 km/s, a
complex Castelli-U radio burst signature with a notable burst of 110,000
sfu on 245 MHz, and a Tenflare of 360 sfu were observed during this
event. The region also produced an M1 flare at approximately 30/1155
UTC. Some preliminary reports of Type II radio sweeps are in but not
finalized as of the time of this report. Region 2017 continued to evolve
this period and maintained its beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration.

Region 2021 (S15E29, Dao/beta-gamma) exhibited consolidation in both the
leader and trailer spot areas this period while Region 2014 (S13W71,
Cso/beta-gamma) continued a minor decay trend as it makes its way to the
west limb. New Region 2025 (S24W13, Dro/beta) emerged on the disk and
was numbered overnight.

WSA-Enlil model run suggests the majority of the ejecta from the CME
associated with the X1 flare will go north, however a small portion of
the CME is expected to be geoeffective and arrive early on 02 Apr.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be moderate (R1-R2(Minor-Moderate)) with a
slight chance for X-class (R3 or greater) flare activity over the next
three days (30 Mar - 01 Apr) with Region 2017 being the likely source.


Energetic Particle
...

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were at background levels. Solar wind speed was
steady in the 400-470 km/s range. Total field values varied between 1 -
5 nT and the Bz component briefly reached a maximum southward value of
-4 nT. Phi data was oriented in a negative (toward) sector throughout
the period.

.Forecast...
The solar wind parameters are expected to remain at background levels
for the next two days (30 - 31 Mar). Enhanced solar wind speeds are
expected mid-to-late day three (01 Apr) with the arrival of the 28 Mar
CMEs.


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was predominately quiet with an isolated period of
unsettled conditions (29/2100-2400 UTC) due to sustained southward Bz.
During the X1 flare mentioned above, a rare effect known as geomagnetic
crochet was observed via a minor nT deviation (17 nT at Boulder) in the
H-traces of the magnetometers which were in the sunlit portion of Earth
during the flare.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominately quiet over the
next two days (30 - 31 Mar) and for the first half of day three (01
Apr). Mid-to-late in the period on day three (01 Apr), the geomagnetic
field is expected to increase to unsettled to active conditions with the
anticipated glancing-blow arrival of the 28 Mar CMEs.

--

Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2014 Mar 31 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 31-Apr 02 2014 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 31-Apr 02 2014

            Mar 31     Apr 01     Apr 02
00-03UT        2          2          4     
03-06UT        1          2          4     
06-09UT        1          2          5 (G1)
09-12UT        1          1          5 (G1)
12-15UT        1          2          4     
15-18UT        1          3          3     
18-21UT        2          4          3     
21-00UT        2          4          4     

Rationale: G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected on 02
April in response to the arrival of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from
28 and 29 March.


--

Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2014 Mar 31 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels due to an M2/1n flare (R1-Minor
radio blackout) with an associated Type-II radio sweep (estimated at 879
km/s) from Region 2017 (N10W49, Dac/beta-gamma) at 30/1155 UTC.  It also
produced a C7 flare at 30/2115 UTC with no optical counterpart reported.

Region 2017 remained the most productive and threatening region on the
disk but lost its delta magnetic configuration this period.  Region 2021
(S15E22, Dai/beta-gamma) exhibited moderate growth this period.  Region
2020 (S13W11, Bxo/beta), a plage region over the last few days,
redeveloped spots late this period but remained unproductive.  New
Regions 2025 (S24W20, Dro/beta) and 2026 (S11E76, Bxo/beta) were
numbered this period and so far six low-level C-class flares have been
attributed to Region 2026 as it continues to rotate onto the disk.

A coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with the M-flare detailed above
was observed in SOHO LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery beginning at 30/1224
UTC off the northwest limb.  WSA-ENLIL model output and forecaster
analysis suggests that this CME will arrive at Earth as a glancing blow
early-to-mid day three (02 Apr).  See the 'Geospace Forecast' portion
below for expected impacts.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to reach moderate levels (R1-R2
(Minor-Moderate)) levels over the next three days (31 Mar - 02 Apr) with
a slight chance for X-class (R3 or greater) flares.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels.  The greater
than 10 MeV proton flux was slightly above background levels (below S1)
this period due to the 29 Mar X-flare.  Proton flux values reached a
maximum of 3.2 pfu at 29/2230 UTC and have steadily decreased since.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal
levels for the next three days (31 Mar - 02 Apr).  The greater than 10
MeV proton flux is expected to be at or near background levels over the
next three days (31 Mar - 02 Apr) with a slight chance for an additional
particle enhancement if additional significant flare activity occurs.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were at background levels.  Solar wind speeds were
steady in the 380-480 km/s range, total field strength values were
steady between 1-4 nT, and Bz reached a maximum southward component of
-2 nT.  Phi data was predominately steady in a negative (toward) sector
throughout the period.

.Forecast...
Solar wind speeds are expected to remain at background levels for day
one (31 Mar) and through most of day two (01 Apr) under a nominal solar
wind environment.  Solar wind speed and density values are expected to
become enhanced late on day one through day two (01 - 02 Apr) with the
arrival of a series of CMEs.  See the 'Geospace Forecast' portion below
for additional information.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet this period.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at quiet levels for day
one (31 Mar) through midday on day two (01 Apr).  A pair of CMEs from 28
Mar are expected to arrive mid-to-late day two (01 Apr), increasing the
geomagnetic field to unsettled to active levels.  The geomagnetic field
is expected to further increase early-to-mid day three (02 Apr)
(unsettled to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels) due to continued
influence from the 28 Mar CMEs in addition to the anticipated arrival of
a pair of CMEs from 29 Mar and a single CME from 30 Mar.

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